Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 120 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35c24b88177d7311d9ac084e47632e44a3ae6dad04de55768a5dbd5ea253f94a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2b…1298backed Yes | 11c | 1,151$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…5e91backed Yes | 43c | 1,008$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 20c | 996.2$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 42c | 724.07$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.37 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…98cebacked Yes | 50c | 720$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 65c | 575.65$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.29 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…46f6backed Yes | 55c | 517$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 8c | 430.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…004bbacked Yes | 50c | 369$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 61c | 303.33$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…16b1backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 47c | 243.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…1c8abacked No | 58c | 229$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf539…eb23backed No | 58c | 179$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…be31backed Yes | 35c | 178.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…822dbacked Yes | 44c | 170.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271d…a4f7backed Yes | 33c | 167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138c…3446backed No | 58c | 161$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…6ceabacked No | 58c | 155$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…408bbacked Yes | 57c | 153$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…85c6backed Yes | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4d…ebccbacked Yes | 40c | 152.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…4b6cbacked Yes | 42c | 144$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…6fabbacked Yes | 38c | 139$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…c48fbacked Yes | 42c | 138$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 38c | 135$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…cd19backed Yes | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175d…5875backed No | 58c | 126$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4f…ca22backed No | 58c | 124$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…fae7backed Yes | 64c | 119.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…1d77backed No | 59c | 117$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…5017backed No | 58c | 112$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…abbcbacked No | 58c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…c488backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…f640backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82fa…3b9ebacked No | 58c | 93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa729…1dd3backed No | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…2f90backed No | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…fad4backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8cdabacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…c924backed No | 80c | 63.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…d5c2backed Yes | 54c | 51.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…2eb2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…6234backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…42f8backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…fca0backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…40cfbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…91eabacked Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…736cbacked Yes | 62c | 26.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked No | 67c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c62…8a72backed No | 79c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…e6cebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…c480backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 120 or more times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90-99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.