Space · resolved market
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17117abf359487f1f6851e4e8319377145d481dbe3a27d08745361bb8f964fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d7e…b475backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…6305backed Yes | 0c | 2,790$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 9c | 699.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 11c | 643.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 13c | 573.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 77c | 500$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…52b6backed Yes | 26c | 419.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 73c | 388.33$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b643backed No | 74c | 305.41$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…35d2backed Yes | 9c | 249.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…8e5abacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 27c | 197.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Yes | 22c | 185.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…aa43backed No | 78c | 166.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed No | 73c | 157.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 40c | 140.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…6845backed No | 79c | 134.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed No | 75c | 118.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 25c | 113.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…f9b5backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 113.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc25…ed74backed Yes | 27c | 106.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…31cdbacked Yes | 47c | 105.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 27c | 100.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 47c | 94.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed No | 58c | 73.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb724…7ce0backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 23c | 53.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 52c | 52.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 23c | 46.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed No | 44c | 45.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…7524backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 49c | 36.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 42c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed No | 54c | 29.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…ad03backed No | 50c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…ee93backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae97…d9debacked No | 76c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.