Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Sabalenka vs. Navarro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a9d83dd3b4f6054afc0aa635940fc0fccae085ec2458f0e8c23249392938802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Navarro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Navarro | 12c | 17,840$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.29 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Navarro | 12c | 16,008$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4eb…1f21backed Navarro | 19c | 4,653$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Navarro | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Navarro | 19c | 1,834$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.51 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…523fbacked Navarro | 21c | 1,358$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…91d5backed Navarro | 22c | 1,353$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Navarro | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Navarro | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Navarro | 20c | 451.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Navarro | 14c | 450$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Navarro | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…beafbacked Sabalenka | 80c | 387.3$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Navarro | 18c | 344.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Navarro | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 282 | 41.8%118 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Navarro | 15c | 261.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Sabalenka | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Sabalenka | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478c…1c81backed Sabalenka | 80c | 160.97$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Navarro | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Navarro | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +166.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Navarro | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Navarro | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Navarro | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Navarro | 14c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Navarro | 17c | 63.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Navarro | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Sabalenka | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.