Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Sinner vs. Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c2a3e160ab4809770597828bdf95faf3214365abc77bf4ace5b29e93172f2f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Medvedev | 27c | 23,864$6,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,389.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed Sinner | 73c | 20,201$14,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,401.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Sinner | 72c | 15,754$11,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,411.02 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…1e59backed Sinner | 73c | 15,024$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,023.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Sinner | 73c | 15,000$11,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…e742backed Sinner | 73c | 14,393$10,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,886.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Medvedev | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Medvedev | 28c | 7,000$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.99 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Sinner | 73c | 6,857$5,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c47…2826backed Sinner | 71c | 6,133$4,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Medvedev | 27c | 5,281$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Sinner | 74c | 5,160$3,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Medvedev | 20c | 4,850$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.61 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Sinner | 72c | 4,672$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Medvedev | 32c | 4,002$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…ee37backed Medvedev | 21c | 3,321$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Medvedev | 28c | 2,218$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…c91ebacked Sinner | 74c | 2,085$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…d8fbbacked Sinner | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Medvedev | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebc…dd8abacked Medvedev | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Medvedev | 20c | 1,850$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…224fbacked Sinner | 72c | 1,700$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…a9e7backed Medvedev | 28c | 1,700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Medvedev | 15c | 1,601$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Medvedev | 9c | 1,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Medvedev | 20c | 1,025$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Medvedev | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Medvedev | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Medvedev | 28c | 904.67$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Sinner | 70c | 896$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Medvedev | 23c | 799.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 26c | 761.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Medvedev | 29c | 668.18$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.29 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…2d6fbacked Medvedev | 29c | 637.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Sinner | 73c | 614.7$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Sinner | 74c | 567.95$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Sinner | 73c | 516.11$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Medvedev | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Sinner | 79c | 442.98$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7c7abacked Medvedev | 11c | 431$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Sinner | 79c | 429.97$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…2836backed Medvedev | 24c | 400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Medvedev | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Sinner | 72c | 342.16$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Medvedev | 17c | 290$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +166.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Medvedev | 28c | 232.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Medvedev | 23c | 211.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 158 | 60.8%96 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Medvedev | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…3a5ebacked Medvedev | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Medvedev | 13c | 199.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Sinner | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Medvedev | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Medvedev | 14c | 170.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…53e3backed Medvedev | 22c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Sinner | 71c | 150.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Sinner | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478c…1c81backed Sinner | 72c | 128.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Sinner | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Medvedev | 29c | 117.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Medvedev | 29c | 113.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe3…8a71backed Sinner | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed Medvedev | 31c | 100.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Medvedev | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…e7bdbacked Medvedev | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Medvedev | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Medvedev | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Medvedev | 17c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed Medvedev | 18c | 91.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Medvedev | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Sinner | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Medvedev | 28c | 55.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…d5fabacked Sinner | 73c | 54.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Sinner | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…cbc1backed Sinner | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Medvedev | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…7e2cbacked Sinner | 80c | 39.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…265fbacked Sinner | 73c | 34.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Sinner | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Sinner | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Sinner | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Sinner | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc9…b451backed Sinner | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.