Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09dc50e3b81889dcb77a98472be329edf347e84ea66071959f3126c87f479093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,176,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,176,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf84d…320bbacked Yes | 0c | 516,555$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59b…6647backed Yes | 0c | 510,076$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6a…6dfabacked Yes | 0c | 276,144$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…f49cbacked Yes | 0c | 274,608$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 29,402$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…7c1ebacked Yes | 0c | 29,402$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a0…b272backed Yes | 0c | 19,780$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…b95ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,780$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c89…0728backed Yes | 0c | 14,835$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…2572backed Yes | 0c | 14,835$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…263bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,835$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…683dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,835$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 14,726$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 14,478$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7c…0440backed Yes | 0c | 11,662$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…6ff0backed Yes | 0c | 9,905$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…a8b7backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd3…ce91backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…caeebacked Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…9fccbacked Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…e15cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…5d02backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…f203backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…206fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea1…76b8backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…6812backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…2d20backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…7661backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…e308backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…8393backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…4241backed Yes | 0c | 9,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,713$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…902fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 0c | 4,533$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 1c | 4,291$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,395$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…d6c0backed Yes | 7c | 823.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 5c | 282.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?Yes won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.