Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8453c929494fd630e082ab8d0a449f34d39bf0e5ec121ba83ac963a84a974f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,120,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,120,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db8…1828backed Yes | 0c | 42,672$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…490fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,894$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…2725backed Yes | 0c | 35,560$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…cf59backed Yes | 0c | 35,560$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff9…b882backed Yes | 0c | 33,782$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…ea47backed Yes | 0c | 33,782$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…edd3backed Yes | 0c | 33,782$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…5e17backed Yes | 0c | 33,149$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…51f7backed Yes | 0c | 32,004$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…cd7abacked Yes | 0c | 32,004$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…a72fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,226$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…3a8bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,226$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f4…9e55backed Yes | 0c | 30,226$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…684bbacked Yes | 0c | 28,448$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…627bbacked Yes | 0c | 28,448$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…2dfcbacked Yes | 0c | 28,448$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…88febacked Yes | 0c | 26,670$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…99a1backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…3148backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…a080backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bc…f79abacked Yes | 0c | 26,670$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3748…df65backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…fdd8backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…fa95backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cd…6708backed Yes | 0c | 26,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…caeebacked Yes | 0c | 25,283$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3a…7f70backed Yes | 0c | 24,892$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…7774backed Yes | 0c | 24,892$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…c466backed Yes | 0c | 24,892$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…3757backed Yes | 0c | 24,892$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…bed0backed Yes | 0c | 24,892$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…6ca6backed Yes | 0c | 23,122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…9c92backed Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…2fa5backed Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…6f2dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…61ddbacked Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b9…1035backed Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…ede2backed Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…4e5dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e89…cfecbacked Yes | 0c | 22,993$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd3…ce91backed Yes | 0c | 22,481$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa63e…1a16backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…ad9cbacked Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…f429backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…ddbabacked Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…5ba3backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…ab94backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…70f0backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…b5cebacked Yes | 0c | 21,336$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…f091backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…f98cbacked Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…cababacked Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…6bb3backed Yes | 0c | 21,336$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…37cfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,558$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…0550backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a24…2277backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddee…f750backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…03cebacked Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…be07backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…af97backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…807fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,558$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…92fcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,558$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…dd78backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…2d32backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…d018backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…ece0backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…ecddbacked Yes | 0c | 19,558$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…1d83backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…1881backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…71a3backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…c8d1backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…49f5backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118e…f4abbacked Yes | 0c | 19,558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbc…71aabacked Yes | 0c | 18,804$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 0c | 18,563$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…ad8ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,292$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698d…26cfbacked Yes | 0c | 18,094$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…0ecfbacked Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…dbebbacked Yes | 0c | 17,780$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c0…7ac6backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8407…5447backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe493…1b70backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…08acbacked Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…19e6backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0a…27e1backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…c0f3backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…6b93backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeae…9ec6backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…6f6bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,780$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60de…0960backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…b39cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef64…2d70backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…2f65backed Yes | 0c | 17,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…643cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,026$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…f79ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,002$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…7c25backed Yes | 0c | 16,002$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd587…6469backed Yes | 0c | 16,002$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…6454backed Yes | 0c | 16,002$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…a5d0backed Yes | 0c | 16,002$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…06bbbacked Yes | 0c | 16,002$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?Yes won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.