TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,120,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,120,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5db8…1828backed Yes0c42,672$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…490fbacked Yes0c40,894$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x810f…2725backed Yes0c35,560$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…cf59backed Yes0c35,560$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff9…b882backed Yes0c33,782$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2df…ea47backed Yes0c33,782$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…edd3backed Yes0c33,782$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497f…5e17backed Yes0c33,149$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe857…51f7backed Yes0c32,004$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb0…cd7abacked Yes0c32,004$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x074c…a72fbacked Yes0c30,226$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3227…3a8bbacked Yes0c30,226$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f4…9e55backed Yes0c30,226$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d09…684bbacked Yes0c28,448$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8619…627bbacked Yes0c28,448$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da7…2dfcbacked Yes0c28,448$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…88febacked Yes0c26,670$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7c…99a1backed Yes0c26,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6970…3148backed Yes0c26,670$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08e…a080backed Yes0c26,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1bc…f79abacked Yes0c26,670$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3748…df65backed Yes0c26,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d4…fdd8backed Yes0c26,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28c…fa95backed Yes0c26,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cd…6708backed Yes0c26,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27c…caeebacked Yes0c25,283$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3a…7f70backed Yes0c24,892$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971c…7774backed Yes0c24,892$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6298…c466backed Yes0c24,892$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1184…3757backed Yes0c24,892$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…bed0backed Yes0c24,892$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e03…6ca6backed Yes0c23,122$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e8…9c92backed Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f7…2fa5backed Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd6…6f2dbacked Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a6…61ddbacked Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b9…1035backed Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032d…ede2backed Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd77f…4e5dbacked Yes0c23,114$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e89…cfecbacked Yes0c22,993$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd3…ce91backed Yes0c22,481$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa63e…1a16backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617a…ad9cbacked Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c07…f429backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x509f…ddbabacked Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fe…5ba3backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a6…ab94backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643c…70f0backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe415…b5cebacked Yes0c21,336$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e8…f091backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf45c…f98cbacked Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1be…cababacked Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae1…6bb3backed Yes0c21,336$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c1…37cfbacked Yes0c19,558$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…0550backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a24…2277backed Yes0c19,558$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddee…f750backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ad…03cebacked Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…be07backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae2…af97backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe547…807fbacked Yes0c19,558$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74b…92fcbacked Yes0c19,558$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497d…dd78backed Yes0c19,558$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd875…2d32backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b91…d018backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d48…ece0backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f1…ecddbacked Yes0c19,558$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb0…1d83backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc18…1881backed Yes0c19,558$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7f…71a3backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65cf…c8d1backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a47…49f5backed Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x118e…f4abbacked Yes0c19,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbc…71aabacked Yes0c18,804$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes0c18,563$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.313435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x152e…ad8ebacked Yes0c18,292$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698d…26cfbacked Yes0c18,094$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…0ecfbacked Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed96…dbebbacked Yes0c17,780$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98c0…7ac6backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8407…5447backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe493…1b70backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8887…08acbacked Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df4…19e6backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0a…27e1backed Yes0c17,780$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3258…c0f3backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0856…6b93backed Yes0c17,780$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeae…9ec6backed Yes0c17,780$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d18…6f6bbacked Yes0c17,780$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60de…0960backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…b39cbacked Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef64…2d70backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0d…2f65backed Yes0c17,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x318f…643cbacked Yes0c17,026$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x995c…f79ebacked Yes0c16,002$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc0…7c25backed Yes0c16,002$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd587…6469backed Yes0c16,002$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…6454backed Yes0c16,002$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…a5d0backed Yes0c16,002$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013f…06bbbacked Yes0c16,002$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.