Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb58d7adb9274e0282180741610f3a79dbf3259fde281ed6ac6d2dc086a3e0f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 4c | 67,408$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.32 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 25,663$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,021$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 30c | 20,629$6,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,160.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 3c | 16,456$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 0c | 11,737$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…0ae1backed Yes | 2c | 11,642$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3426…c7b7backed Yes | 3c | 6,744$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb1…ff1bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,868$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 2c | 4,421$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 5c | 2,423$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,353$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 18c | 2,074$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 11c | 1,973$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 3c | 1,564$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…c51abacked Yes | 53c | 1,557$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc46c…f7b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,368$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,253$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 31c | 1,221$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.65 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 13c | 1,204$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…ae09backed Yes | 22c | 1,036$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 31c | 1,019$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…7086backed Yes | 48c | 1,005$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…f4afbacked Yes | 2c | 998.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 46c | 997.99$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.92 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 997.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 60c | 991.76$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 2c | 898.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a56…511bbacked Yes | 2c | 873.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 35c | 872$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 50c | 848.24$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 51c | 844.41$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…9fd7backed Yes | 54c | 775.03$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 12c | 670$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 26c | 647.89$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…212ebacked Yes | 13c | 481.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…0a67backed Yes | 10c | 430.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…b80bbacked Yes | 28c | 381.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 41c | 356.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 37c | 312.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 280.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 5c | 267.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…b5b0backed Yes | 8c | 252.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ff…c392backed No | 55c | 244.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 43c | 241$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b39bbacked Yes | 59c | 233.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…7b82backed Yes | 38c | 220.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…750fbacked Yes | 48c | 217.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…371cbacked Yes | 38c | 212.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…61debacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…d34abacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 42c | 165$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…d91ebacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 49c | 146.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 19c | 138.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…9be6backed Yes | 45c | 125.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 35c | 123.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…8d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…1ee7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 28c | 99.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…2ab8backed Yes | 38c | 77.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…6ce0backed Yes | 49c | 71.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…fe96backed Yes | 51c | 67.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…b1c7backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 51.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0971…5ec3backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…07d4backed Yes | 44c | 28.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfa…6ed4backed Yes | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…a158backed Yes | 43c | 25.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…3ee3backed Yes | 52c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?Yes won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.