Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423e837c18bbdef1b346231b7a2129f6a17e60d05e92c72fc67eb4b63a0d3509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $379,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $445,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 37c | 37,173$13,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,486.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 67c | 13,969$9,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,663.78 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 39c | 11,988$4,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,255.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 75c | 9,851$7,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.49 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 79c | 9,336$7,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 59c | 8,027$4,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,774.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 32c | 7,544$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…37debacked Yes | 74c | 6,889$5,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 5c | 5,417$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.83 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed No | 18c | 4,357$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 40c | 4,350$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 7c | 3,835$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 3,587$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed No | 64c | 3,396$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 55c | 3,314$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 52c | 2,973$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.24 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 60c | 1,661$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.86 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…d18cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…8208backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…df07backed No | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…54f8backed Yes | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8e…7a0cbacked No | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…7bb6backed No | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…5a3fbacked No | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…31bcbacked Yes | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 7c | 1,461$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,218$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 1,171$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.32 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 70c | 1,139$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 45c | 1,126$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.23 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 23c | 1,119$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 42c | 1,109$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 53c | 1,030$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed Yes | 73c | 899.09$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 34c | 893.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 46c | 800$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…ca3dbacked No | 2c | 761.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 692.06$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…d34abacked Yes | 79c | 686$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…7f1ebacked No | 72c | 668.35$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed No | 59c | 634.21$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 18c | 624.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 3c | 609$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +3,757.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked No | 63c | 550.09$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…ae09backed Yes | 73c | 510$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 64c | 497$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 44c | 494.3$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a4…c666backed Yes | 68c | 438$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…2703backed No | 77c | 425$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 31c | 424.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…9b9bbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…f1b6backed Yes | 58c | 399$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…cb8fbacked Yes | 70c | 398.55$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…0ae1backed No | 53c | 379.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 17c | 332.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 65c | 310.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 59c | 304.69$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 60c | 277.42$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…e96cbacked Yes | 78c | 261.82$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed No | 43c | 256.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 219.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…d91ebacked No | 34c | 198.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…ca8fbacked No | 31c | 194.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…c51abacked No | 53c | 185.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…0cf5backed No | 42c | 180$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed No | 51c | 179.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c7…14cdbacked No | 30c | 163.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe691…6554backed Yes | 74c | 142.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…4da4backed No | 27c | 140.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…99fcbacked Yes | 73c | 139.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…34abbacked No | 32c | 135.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 65c | 130.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 77c | 122.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…5cbabacked No | 27c | 121.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 41c | 121.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…bbfebacked Yes | 73c | 107.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…3f1cbacked Yes | 75c | 106.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked No | 76c | 104.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…b80bbacked Yes | 54c | 104.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…9324backed Yes | 73c | 99.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…0dd7backed No | 27c | 95.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 19c | 92.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…95dbbacked Yes | 74c | 91.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…a268backed Yes | 71c | 91.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 90.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…80acbacked No | 29c | 88.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 66c | 84.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…f181backed Yes | 74c | 72.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 29c | 72.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0971…5ec3backed Yes | 73c | 71.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…6816backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2533…5ab6backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba7…87f4backed No | 30c | 67.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.