Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d290cd639a04f6b829d5cd6a3d7dcfb06268c552c0da23ab5453273584976f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 73,309$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.38 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 46,458$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 14c | 28,385$3,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,954.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…d932backed Yes | 0c | 10,948$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…c51abacked Yes | 13c | 7,324$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 6,881$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 5,232$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb1…ff1bbacked No | 76c | 5,072$3,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 0c | 4,898$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 3,870$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…0ae1backed Yes | 15c | 3,721$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 10c | 3,491$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.79 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,861$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3426…c7b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,617$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 2,398$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…b79abacked Yes | 19c | 2,057$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,826$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…7086backed Yes | 20c | 955.25$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…1a4dbacked Yes | 11c | 900.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 14c | 620$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 20c | 620$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 8c | 606.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…371cbacked Yes | 18c | 555.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 19c | 550$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 456.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 30c | 436.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 390$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 9c | 310.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…d91ebacked Yes | 12c | 286.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 18c | 258.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…0a67backed Yes | 13c | 242.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…212ebacked Yes | 10c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7064backed Yes | 22c | 172.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f97…05e2backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 21c | 148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…d04ebacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 12c | 117.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…a158backed Yes | 15c | 108.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…2ab8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…d34abacked Yes | 18c | 68.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…0f97backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?Yes won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.