Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f6b02f865b28fafcac3ba7413b9e4314dac1674ca4ae9ccb278eaafff6798b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $441,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 45,930$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 45,701$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.66 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 24c | 34,284$8,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,063.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 24c | 33,017$7,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,959.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…aad5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 12c | 14,981$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 13,247$10,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.12 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 74c | 12,135$8,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 25c | 10,798$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 5c | 9,052$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.88 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 24c | 9,006$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked No | 77c | 8,375$6,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed No | 72c | 7,966$5,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 3c | 6,148$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.35 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 3c | 5,407$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 1c | 4,900$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 4,718$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.61 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…37debacked No | 74c | 4,695$3,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 0c | 4,588$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 27c | 4,502$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…cb8fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,362$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…dc32backed Yes | 1c | 4,324$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 24c | 3,425$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.85 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 25c | 3,366$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.77 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 3,127$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 73c | 2,116$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…cba3backed Yes | 1c | 2,085$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…e384backed Yes | 1c | 1,831$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 28c | 1,679$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,678$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 1,213$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.71 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x144a…e06ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,119$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 4c | 1,096$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…f4afbacked Yes | 1c | 681.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 3c | 630$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 2c | 515$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…2b6ebacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8291backed Yes | 12c | 494.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 18c | 442$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 430$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 29c | 232.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…1c1dbacked Yes | 27c | 229.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…5fa3backed Yes | 26c | 217.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…d34abacked Yes | 28c | 133$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 32c | 122$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 27c | 111.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfea…15ecbacked Yes | 28c | 65.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 31c | 65.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…12adbacked Yes | 27c | 48.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 45c | 29.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f55…b310backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?Yes won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.