Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25002593455b527f4234c40093978a0e2b7e3343d1cd07bb497fc83e6152dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,274,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,274,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 35,989$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…ce31backed Yes | 0c | 23,341$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 22,841$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…0219backed Yes | 0c | 16,673$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd3…ce91backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc130…1354backed Yes | 0c | 16,655$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 14,933$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…dd7bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,342$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…bfbcbacked Yes | 0c | 13,336$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c89…0728backed Yes | 0c | 13,336$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…6f66backed Yes | 0c | 13,336$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…e10abacked Yes | 0c | 13,330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…206fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…7638backed Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…35c5backed Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…2ba4backed Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…fffbbacked Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…cd15backed Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…720bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…6e99backed Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54b…d6a2backed Yes | 0c | 13,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…6ff0backed Yes | 0c | 10,069$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…a8b7backed Yes | 0c | 10,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…32e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…cc57backed Yes | 0c | 10,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…2572backed Yes | 0c | 10,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…2d20backed Yes | 0c | 10,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…9438backed Yes | 0c | 10,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…a0f7backed Yes | 0c | 10,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…8824backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a8…62b6backed Yes | 0c | 9,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…3653backed Yes | 0c | 9,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ac…84d3backed Yes | 0c | 9,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcf…ea1abacked Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…fe31backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…81f8backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…7ee0backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab09…7fd9backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…2c61backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…ba45backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…42ecbacked Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…f2f8backed Yes | 0c | 9,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…fa72backed Yes | 0c | 9,821$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…5382backed Yes | 0c | 9,477$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…46ccbacked Yes | 0c | 9,477$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…683dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,896$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…caeebacked Yes | 0c | 6,674$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…5d02backed Yes | 0c | 6,674$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…6812backed Yes | 0c | 6,674$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbc…71aabacked Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…c8adbacked Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…e15cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2b…0827backed Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…c366backed Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…7661backed Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…475bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…4241backed Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…5e17backed Yes | 0c | 6,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…0944backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745e…69e4backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ec…6617backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…9aa8backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…3b1dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…03cebacked Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f26…c168backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…be07backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…7780backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…ea47backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…904bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e61…80c5backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc3…a5f7backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…9423backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…e308backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…3931backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…e839backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…1a26backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…4e23backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f4…9e55backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…1c9cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…8f2cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,549$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…12dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…aad7backed Yes | 0c | 6,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…9868backed Yes | 0c | 6,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…4c38backed Yes | 0c | 6,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1564…e76abacked Yes | 0c | 6,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…edd3backed Yes | 0c | 6,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,005$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 4,165$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 2c | 2,560$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,380$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…d932backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,310$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…0a67backed Yes | 3c | 1,072$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…4868backed Yes | 11c | 929.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 10c | 790$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 9c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 531.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7064backed Yes | 7c | 513.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?this page
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?Yes won
- Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?No won
- Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 2% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.