Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a556b7a272171bf82e4cecd2aa8d1891d92e966b1cf90f3040515c8e90ec0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,578$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 73c | 3,945$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.32 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 3,820$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 3,756$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.49 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 13c | 3,193$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…cfeebacked Yes | 50c | 2,046$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…2560backed No | 50c | 2,037$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,884$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 7c | 1,631$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 20c | 1,183$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…11dfbacked Yes | 42c | 1,180$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 20c | 967.14$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 14c | 919.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 764.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 62c | 675$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 34c | 669.85$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 31c | 661$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.19 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 19c | 603.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.69 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 61c | 585.28$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 79c | 569.74$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 47c | 533.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 2c | 510$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…7f68backed Yes | 60c | 450$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 69c | 377$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 54c | 360$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 54c | 343.58$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.2 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 63c | 339.22$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 44c | 318.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 295.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 69c | 272.41$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 54c | 245$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a9…6ba4backed Yes | 51c | 215$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…3dffbacked No | 49c | 215$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9a…b15fbacked No | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9580…9237backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 36c | 181.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 142$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 42c | 103.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…1ee7backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 66c | 96.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…8a4ebacked Yes | 22c | 89.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 87.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 72c | 79.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 36c | 67.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 51c | 53.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…f991backed Yes | 50c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 43c | 42.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 67c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked No | 45c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…1236backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Miller for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Joni Ernst for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Gallagher for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Pompeo for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert O’Brien for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Tom Cotton for Defense Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.