UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5e70a708257e8fb3d9adc136fb48ff1d368b716354cd4896781a502936fc0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ketlen Souzaof Ariane Carnelossi, Ketlen Souza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 12,556$9,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,138.94 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 10,673$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.25 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 6,349$4,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.27 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 5,957$4,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.26 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Ariane Carnelossi | 24c | 4,305$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.25 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 2,512$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 2,504$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 2,006$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.67 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ketlen Souza | 75c | 1,695$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.72 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ketlen Souza | 74c | 1,348$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.84 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ariane Carnelossi | 24c | 1,311$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.57 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Ariane Carnelossi | 28c | 1,300$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.99 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 1,125$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.22 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…884ebacked Ketlen Souza | 72c | 1,020$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.13 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 999.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…bacdbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 923.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…268ebacked Ketlen Souza | 74c | 800$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.83 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Ariane Carnelossi | 32c | 751.87$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Ketlen Souza | 74c | 750.53$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.14 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Ariane Carnelossi | 29c | 719$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.97 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Ketlen Souza | 77c | 715.38$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Ketlen Souza | 70c | 663.77$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.17 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…b821backed Ketlen Souza | 73c | 654.95$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.84 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 643.19$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Ariane Carnelossi | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Ariane Carnelossi | 31c | 537.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 515.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 513.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…3d49backed Ariane Carnelossi | 28c | 500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 498$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…ae3bbacked Ketlen Souza | 75c | 452.92$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Ketlen Souza | 71c | 426.81$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ketlen Souza | 71c | 397.84$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 356.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 138 | 32.6%45 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2f75backed Ketlen Souza | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Ariane Carnelossi | 24c | 340.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ketlen Souza | 73c | 332$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 310$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…d123backed Ariane Carnelossi | 27c | 278$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Ariane Carnelossi | 24c | 265$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Ariane Carnelossi | 28c | 248.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Ariane Carnelossi | 31c | 240$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ketlen Souza | 74c | 239$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Ariane Carnelossi | 14c | 234.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Ariane Carnelossi | 21c | 208.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x583d…d79bbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Ketlen Souza | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Ketlen Souza | 76c | 197.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 193.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 188.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…393abacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 187.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…e8c1backed Ariane Carnelossi | 32c | 187.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 184.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Ketlen Souza | 75c | 176.27$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 175.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ketlen Souza | 75c | 171.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Ketlen Souza | 76c | 166.88$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1d82backed Ketlen Souza | 71c | 166.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 159.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 157$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 156.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked Ketlen Souza | 73c | 140.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 139.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Ketlen Souza | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 138.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Ketlen Souza | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…98aebacked Ketlen Souza | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 265 | 69.4%184 W · 81 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 126$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ariane Carnelossi | 30c | 123.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Ketlen Souza | 75c | 119.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Ketlen Souza | 73c | 116.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Ketlen Souza | 76c | 115.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 111.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 109.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Ariane Carnelossi | 29c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…cb18backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 104.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…8acdbacked Ariane Carnelossi | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Ketlen Souza | 76c | 101.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Ketlen Souza | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 239 | 61.5%147 W · 92 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2029…49a3backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Ariane Carnelossi | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Ketlen Souza | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Ketlen Souza | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed Ketlen Souza | 76c | 98.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Ketlen Souza | 77c | 97.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Ariane Carnelossi | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Ketlen Souza win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.