UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8843506efc8eb988d30965e3229c7e1668a891de70e9a6e6c55d17a36c33d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 32c | 11,764$3,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,004.27 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 68c | 11,517$7,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,831.6 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 60c | 1,553$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.2 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 40c | 1,199$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.58 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 10c | 268.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Over | 68c | 232.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 67c | 213$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 33c | 213$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 67c | 177.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Under | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 31c | 94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 32c | 73.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 33c | 66.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 69c | 65.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 69c | 64.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 69c | 63.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 33c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 69c | 46.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Under | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 32c | 39.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 69c | 36.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 33c | 32.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Over | 69c | 31.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 69c | 21.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 69c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 69c | 16.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 69c | 16.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Ketlen Souza won
- Will Ketlen Souza win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.