Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Southampton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52671dc13e00f9086444da74f6b01f1a29eb0d1d86af5187cd2319fcd19dcb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 23c | 4,999$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,849.23 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…8bb6backed No | 26c | 3,838$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.03 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 77c | 2,463$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 2,381$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.67 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed Yes | 78c | 1,208$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 29c | 1,109$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.67 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…1ae1backed Yes | 18c | 917$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…57f9backed Yes | 29c | 838.4$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked No | 71c | 781.69$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.69 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…f5e1backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…8509backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 34c | 514.29$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.91 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 75c | 351$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 47c | 320.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 32c | 315.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 75c | 306.61$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.66 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 76c | 268.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 68c | 261.76$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386b…b750backed Yes | 17c | 252.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…a97bbacked Yes | 17c | 221.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ba…773fbacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 17c | 200.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 61c | 128.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…2d04backed Yes | 45c | 122.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…cefebacked Yes | 68c | 121.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 103.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 16c | 99.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 37c | 85.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…9143backed Yes | 30c | 65.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…2bcebacked Yes | 38c | 63.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…f5e1backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 48.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 68c | 35.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b1…e6babacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Southampton end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16?Yes won
- Will Southampton win on 2025-01-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.