Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton win on 2025-01-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef9572df49ed87e68e986342847178e876d701be36e84a5c1d86e5f4ccb161e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 9c | 6,079$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.09 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 5,681$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.45 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 8c | 3,037$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.31 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 52c | 2,874$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.25 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 51c | 1,079$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb586…7f97backed Yes | 43c | 937.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 14c | 922$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…b8b4backed No | 65c | 829.21$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 68c | 768.81$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.44 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 8c | 737.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…1ae1backed Yes | 9c | 731$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 63c | 725.9$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.58 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 79c | 712.76$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Yes | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 9c | 666.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 58c | 623.02$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.67 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 12c | 607.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 37c | 534.76$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 63c | 479.62$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.02 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 471.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 47c | 416.22$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.79 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 51c | 393.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…80ebbacked Yes | 11c | 288.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed No | 55c | 238.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 58c | 228.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…7930backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Yes | 9c | 222.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…2d04backed Yes | 14c | 217.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Yes | 60c | 167.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…3c9cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 62c | 145.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…47e4backed Yes | 9c | 128.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…c879backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…26a3backed Yes | 65c | 118.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 20c | 107.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…2ba9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 26c | 96.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf611…3dccbacked Yes | 11c | 95.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…3607backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2424…2431backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 45c | 51.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf793…e464backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…5e21backed Yes | 53c | 47.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…1823backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…aadebacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…214dbacked Yes | 62c | 39.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 38.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…806fbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…7352backed Yes | 52c | 34.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 29.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 65c | 25.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…2c73backed No | 59c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Yes | 45c | 24.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…9a67backed Yes | 45c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…d42abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton win on 2025-01-16?this page
- Will Manchester United vs. Southampton end in a draw?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.