TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$289,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$304,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3eb4…5821backed Yes75c147,000$110,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,7503100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb3…bfb7backed No25c147,000$36,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes75c15,712$11,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,870.0440254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No24c13,618$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,286.5722744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b46…db60backed No69c10,015$6,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,909.491450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No51c7,648$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,876.9479650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No25c6,017$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.1941437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No24c4,720$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.88750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No25c4,010$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.4768026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed Yes74c3,838$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.673855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x44c4…09cbbacked Yes27c3,770$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.173333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No26c2,864$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.7590751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No25c2,791$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.6529751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Yes73c2,003$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.983333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Yes75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No44c1,961$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.137841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes58c1,915$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.53360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes75c1,652$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4091442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef0…a56ebacked Yes76c1,616$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.631250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No73c1,595$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.322560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes26c1,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1109238%35 W · 57 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9740046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed No64c1,383$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.325959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes60c1,355$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.2769772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Yes74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.323161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Yes27c1,115$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.331163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes75c1,093$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.1732736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3df6…bb77backed Yes76c1,026$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+345.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Yes65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55f…f4f4backed No26c972.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No24c925.78$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6616660.8%101 W · 65 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945e…2acabacked Yes41c851.69$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.51566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+112.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes36c843.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.3511548.7%56 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No24c827.66$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6656158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed No25c801.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.492725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes67c747.68$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.884052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes53c705$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.736954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes72c700$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19529653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0bb…9702backed Yes75c689.37$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.826838.2%26 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6d…f360backed Yes24c669.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.982128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf15b…0934backed No26c650$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5450%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes73c600$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16042755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed No2c539.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1412149.6%60 W · 61 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+95.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes76c518.42$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.421741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12544939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Yes76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1153360.6%20 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes74c499.97$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9921153.1%112 W · 99 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…4864backed Yes36c475.74$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.473828.9%11 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No33c461.5$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9537652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No24c450.85$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1360557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c443.96$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2966031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No23c424.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7983459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc45…a699backed Yes32c423.63$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007650%38 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked No24c399.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9622050%110 W · 110 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked No24c394.5$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No65c385$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.253762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ff3…429dbacked Yes75c350.12$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No25c328.5$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1124044.2%106 W · 134 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Yes75c306.67$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6711855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked No26c302.52$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.664555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No65c300.47$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0656453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e09…c03abacked Yes29c300$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2141100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes67c299.4$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.817745.8%81 W · 96 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa64a…21dabacked Yes77c283.08$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.83737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6834…2bd2backed No78c274.94$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.132955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c9…e725backed Yes14c270.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+85.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686e…af8cbacked Yes36c267.22$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.028825%22 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b05…f7e9backed Yes76c262.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb586…7f97backed Yes77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.742147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Yes74c249.89$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.971553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No46c218.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5934251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes77c218.18$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.188943.8%39 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Yes75c216.07$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.565742.1%24 W · 33 L-8.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed No42c214.23$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d63…8302backed No26c209.65$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3025…fccdbacked Yes24c209.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.384940.8%20 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf305…4c09backed Yes76c205.9$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.21250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes16c198.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.419027.8%25 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Yes76c197.36$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.371921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-65.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No28c194.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0840640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes77c194.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.812356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Yes75c186.67$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6711052.7%58 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec89…3286backed Yes76c184.21$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2117146.8%80 W · 91 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0b…f974backed Yes77c181.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.721560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d00…d4b4backed Yes76c170.28$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.87785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick72cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b8…c769backed Yes37c162.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.31250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes75c161.96$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7710341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked No25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015636.5%57 W · 99 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8175…e4b8backed No25c159.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4687…f67ebacked Yes75c154.88$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.72850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed Yes77c153.49$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick62cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Yes35c143.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+96.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes77c140$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.226054.2%141 W · 119 L+1.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612a…3c9cbacked Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.