Premier League · resolved market
Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ff656f59f1f962bc2b5933abc48333f1be6f3cc0ea80b71ca174fbaf518ea1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.54 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 34c | 1,461$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.58 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 31c | 1,227$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.34 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 67c | 1,065$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.7 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 78c | 962.21$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.52 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 29c | 942.87$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…09a4backed No | 79c | 899.99$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 77c | 892.53$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.54 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Yes | 22c | 766.14$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.59 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 24c | 762.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.47 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…72ebbacked Yes | 64c | 628.11$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b81…0683backed Yes | 34c | 515.4$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked Yes | 23c | 502.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 76c | 454.48$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.74 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…7840backed Yes | 22c | 386.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked No | 78c | 346.15$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 22c | 313.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.78 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed No | 71c | 248.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdc…1669backed No | 59c | 203.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 19c | 192.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.54 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 29c | 185.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 21c | 155$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…1143backed No | 79c | 135$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…008cbacked Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…1027backed Yes | 42c | 118$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 28c | 110.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdb…08c7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…434cbacked No | 77c | 91.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +329.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…e51ebacked Yes | 29c | 90.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 62c | 63.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x86bf…2ccabacked No | 79c | 61.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…dd08backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60c6…db1bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0e7cbacked No | 75c | 33.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…d353backed Yes | 34c | 32.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd29a…166bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9866…6e9fbacked No | 78c | 17.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…b0d2backed Yes | 68c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08?No won
- Will Fulham win on 2024-12-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.