TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Patriots

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Bills, Patriots
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,331,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,285,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,331,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1638…339bbacked Patriots36c176,578$64,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,285.197041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Bills60c150,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,999.9812570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3d13backed Patriots10c123,000$12,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,7001100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb511…01dabacked Bills64c120,981$77,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,539.53080%24 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Patriots39c50,311$19,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,457.4644246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Patriots38c48,665$18,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,243.525137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Patriots45c48,395$21,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,750.359645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Bills0c44,991$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.997833.3%26 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Patriots41c43,281$17,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,430.3422638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d9…ad02backed Bills10c38,445$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.783767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Bills54c32,354$17,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,461.655650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e6…cc3abacked Bills63c32,012$20,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,181.071070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…7094backed Bills62c31,761$19,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,562.471145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Patriots48c30,294$14,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,610.094746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3e…b656backed Bills61c28,410$17,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,3302864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Bills58c25,000$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,499.993650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Patriots48c23,055$11,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,923.9420634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Patriots36c21,458$7,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,639.4231848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Bills62c18,840$11,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,633.491435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots40c15,599$6,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,359.2360049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x236a…9a00backed Patriots39c15,375$6,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,324.921631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Patriots40c14,169$5,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,499.184755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Patriots40c13,527$5,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,053.598218.3%15 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Bills63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.995459.3%32 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Patriots39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.842626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Patriots39c9,528$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,812.282055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Patriots40c9,212$3,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,557.523743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Bills64c8,706$5,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,534.931769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed Bills64c7,602$4,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,833.33135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Bills64c7,566$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,842.2516545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Patriots41c7,557$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,442.97541.3%31 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff1…3f4fbacked Bills46c7,019$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe330…1674backed Patriots42c6,327$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,694.551650%8 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed Patriots40c5,805$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4831513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Bills65c5,737$3,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,753.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Bills59c5,557$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.6912843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Patriots56c5,449$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.814457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe858…8573backed Patriots40c5,075$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+153.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bills59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Patriots39c4,300$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.9921251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Bills49c4,229$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.762268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed Patriots48c4,174$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.921457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x015d…6f8bbacked Bills64c3,371$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4583…0bb9backed Patriots41c3,222$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Patriots38c3,150$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.9614022.9%32 W · 108 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Patriots45c3,133$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.2910345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Bills65c3,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007456.8%42 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Bills66c3,032$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Patriots16c3,022$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.3128337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Bills63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89028556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Bills64c2,924$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.278856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d61…75cfbacked Bills61c2,642$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.382171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3538…e615backed Patriots12c2,604$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bills3c2,330$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.434311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Bills40c2,255$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.113871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Patriots42c2,219$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.9322142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Bills60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed Bills52c1,945$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.154316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-59.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…2da1backed Bills65c1,912$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked Patriots41c1,885$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.061346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Bills25c1,844$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.64546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Patriots51c1,806$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.381833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bills59c1,713$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.7134349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked Patriots39c1,665$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.971471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6aa7…5455backed Bills61c1,640$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007544%33 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac29…fa88backed Bills63c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028659.4%170 W · 116 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d8e…77b6backed Bills64c1,566$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80eb…5bfcbacked Bills64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25de…794bbacked Bills65c1,548$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Bills65c1,545$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910763.6%68 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Bills65c1,539$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed Bills65c1,539$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53f6…7f1fbacked Bills65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Patriots43c1,482$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.3828447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2577…aa48backed Patriots36c1,400$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac7c…0dc3backed Bills65c1,400$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Patriots36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.8939754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Patriots36c1,365$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.1911738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Bills60c1,352$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.737071.4%50 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43a0…0d5cbacked Bills63c1,350$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Bills62c1,338$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.2318350.3%92 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Patriots40c1,322$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.763455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Patriots40c1,310$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.871540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…6cd3backed Patriots52c1,305$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6586…c69cbacked Bills64c1,238$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked Patriots38c1,185$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.085424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdd4…aa8abacked Patriots44c1,153$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb272…21d8backed Bills61c1,152$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f53…07f4backed Patriots38c1,145$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.741283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+58.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Bills52c1,140$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.3625643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed Bills63c1,113$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017768.8%53 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Bills63c1,111$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.885261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fca…4657backed Bills51c1,103$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.68560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Bills63c1,080$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.718953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Patriots37c1,032$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+98.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Patriots41c1,014$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.0910738.3%41 W · 66 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dec…c5b2backed Bills62c1,002$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.331838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Bills55c1,000$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.3729356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Patriots35c1,000$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.031414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Bills1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.