MLB · resolved market
AL Wildcard: Orioles vs. Royals Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120d93acf13c74d0ac91456970d0d463e9372c976cda7467c7b446c592b3956e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Orioles, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Royals | 45c | 18,232$8,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,949.03 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Orioles | 49c | 11,028$5,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,401.6 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Orioles | 51c | 4,148$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Orioles | 77c | 3,670$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.96 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Royals | 79c | 1,004$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.78 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Orioles | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Royals | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Royals | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Royals | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Royals | 68c | 143$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Orioles | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Royals | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…f77ebacked Orioles | 36c | 91.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Orioles | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…636abacked Orioles | 60c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Orioles | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Orioles | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.