TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Tesla bot at Trump inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$346,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$356,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes5c54,585$2,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,805.6890%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9f2…3b01backed Yes8c31,203$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Yes6c21,872$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae4…6974backed Yes11c9,091$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3997…e141backed Yes9c6,944$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…304dbacked Yes8c5,844$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.480%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7b…f229backed Yes7c5,604$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes5c4,590$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.782133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…902bbacked Yes11c3,779$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c3,379$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.863859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes1c3,337$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.371330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes10c2,852$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.63633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0a…f2afbacked Yes5c2,415$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes8c2,316$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2be…b150backed Yes5c2,127$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes8c2,120$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51a8…d3f8backed Yes4c2,119$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6598…42adbacked Yes9c1,926$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd63…2ae5backed Yes10c1,833$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec9…e566backed Yes10c1,705$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes10c1,580$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.011435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes4c1,371$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes8c1,313$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.043023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd6…3245backed Yes4c1,203$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b85…4be3backed Yes4c1,133$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0cd…1409backed Yes11c1,107$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2485…0006backed Yes9c1,060$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b2…393abacked Yes10c1,049$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed Yes5c1,010$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…a045backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…c1c3backed Yes4c996.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1b…2eeabacked Yes10c996.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c81…efc1backed Yes12c954.62$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b7…d868backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes6c885.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes5c871.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.423639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfe…2330backed Yes6c870.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c05…850abacked Yes6c856.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b75…bad1backed Yes6c837.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…342ebacked Yes7c836.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes10c800$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c792.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1717713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b6…2dcebacked Yes12c785.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…44c7backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes9c700$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.93156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c9…e53bbacked Yes8c645.05$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes8c634.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.18450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+168.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes5c599.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.34755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes4c597.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes10c590.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc93…bc03backed Yes9c573.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x800f…e161backed Yes9c563.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes6c557.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.962227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a82…0d54backed Yes5c532.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8d…e66fbacked Yes8c500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…4464backed Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecc…06cdbacked Yes6c494.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa78…8af1backed Yes10c483.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-69%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes5c464.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ec…1af7backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef6…eb68backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed Yes11c451.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes5c450$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.623528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2748…6a07backed Yes10c449.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29bc…b4c3backed Yes11c445.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb414…da07backed Yes11c425.09$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaf…18bebacked Yes7c408.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b9…0d20backed Yes5c405.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes10c402.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403417.6%6 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…8577backed Yes7c372.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked Yes5c370$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98130%0 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5999…8bd3backed Yes6c366.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…8646backed Yes10c363.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b3…7d36backed Yes10c363.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+80.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265d…e1c0backed Yes6c344.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39b…fff1backed Yes15c340.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…9370backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda47…99cabacked Yes7c324.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f097backed Yes6c318.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a4…df18backed Yes4c310.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3480…0735backed Yes4c303.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac61…551dbacked Yes10c300.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c1…d2cdbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c6…24dbbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…09e8backed Yes6c297.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07df…4279backed Yes6c296.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7307…cbc3backed Yes12c289.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…02edbacked Yes9c288.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c4…0d70backed Yes9c280.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes11c278.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d34…5aaebacked Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8a…67d7backed Yes11c271.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1837…8da6backed Yes9c266.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24110%0 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd57…1cf2backed Yes6c263.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693a…0ed9backed Yes11c259.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329b…fed8backed Yes7c258.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9330…21a2backed Yes12c257.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.