NFL · resolved market
Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift at Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce38bd9c2d1d6d400cc966a8d94ba2cfd0dd2d2d09677141c07cc7f2321b3f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 8,545$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.02 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Yes | 6c | 7,639$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.13 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,862$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 6c | 3,620$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…8247backed Yes | 5c | 3,405$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c8…b0dcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,854$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…17d7backed Yes | 9c | 2,148$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…fa87backed Yes | 10c | 2,002$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 10c | 1,937$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,581$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…be4ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,550$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…19f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,401$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,192$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2932backed Yes | 3c | 1,121$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…6ee7backed Yes | 7c | 1,029$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319a…03cebacked Yes | 12c | 803.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…781abacked Yes | 10c | 515.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…0944backed Yes | 2c | 510.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…2cc7backed Yes | 2c | 500.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 7c | 494.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 7c | 433.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…bf74backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…01c6backed Yes | 10c | 394.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…bad4backed Yes | 9c | 378$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…4946backed Yes | 7c | 374.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 7c | 358.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Yes | 7c | 350$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 7c | 333.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 9c | 329.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…e859backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +174%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x595b…d58bbacked Yes | 7c | 294.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…c59fbacked Yes | 23c | 260.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 8c | 255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…e4e4backed Yes | 9c | 253.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…61d0backed Yes | 8c | 249.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a2…4123backed Yes | 9c | 230.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…3adebacked Yes | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…5025backed Yes | 7c | 227.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…e292backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…47e4backed Yes | 7c | 196.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…c166backed Yes | 7c | 182.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…3290backed Yes | 8c | 163.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 8c | 156.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 13c | 150.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…660bbacked Yes | 14c | 143.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 8c | 133.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…33cbbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Yes | 15c | 116.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…b51cbacked Yes | 10c | 113.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.