NFL · resolved market
The Portnoy Parlay - Super Bowl LIX
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ba26a31d38992b56cfa51107584b2996c67a3110b387322557170d32b25d336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 13c | 6,642$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.41 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 6c | 2,645$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes | 14c | 2,279$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…cc94backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 13c | 1,400$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,396$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…31a0backed Yes | 15c | 1,160$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…515fbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 13c | 766.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 19c | 688.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 12c | 575$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…0bd9backed Yes | 11c | 560$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…2353backed Yes | 13c | 493$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 14c | 452.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 27c | 450$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…010abacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 11c | 260.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d597backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…5ad6backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +1,429.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…bccdbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…9299backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafc9…c670backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc434…9978backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…2ba8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…29eebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02d…3277backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fb…7ec4backed Yes | 15c | 117.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…f0ebbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…668ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.