Weather · resolved market
September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8559485d1f6670ab04fb68eb1c3bd9039139fd488bc48e07addc0d75fe189674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5037…4f2fbacked Yes | 50c | 10,164$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,082.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…a8e2backed No | 50c | 10,118$5,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,058.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 43c | 5,093$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.25 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 60c | 3,605$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.71 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 28c | 3,600$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.6 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed No | 1c | 2,443$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 56c | 2,024$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.58 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 47c | 2,022$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.02 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…291abacked No | 5c | 1,870$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 7c | 1,612$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 34c | 1,467$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.36 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 78c | 1,228$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 46c | 1,116$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 1,095$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 59c | 1,054$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…80b7backed Yes | 49c | 1,011$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…1874backed No | 6c | 840$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebc…78b7backed Yes | 54c | 831.76$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 40c | 800$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 52c | 764.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 39c | 739.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 526.64$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.9 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 60c | 520$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 71c | 466.24$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked No | 23c | 437.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 72c | 430$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c68…ce0abacked No | 49c | 412.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 16c | 380.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked No | 12c | 349.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 65c | 330$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 40c | 330$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2d33backed No | 17c | 305.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 300.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 69c | 297.16$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e5…4211backed Yes | 59c | 266$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…e81cbacked Yes | 69c | 217.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c0…b813backed No | 19c | 187.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 64c | 165.83$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4c97backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…9956backed Yes | 48c | 108.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…e39abacked No | 49c | 107.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 62c | 106.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…41aabacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…faa4backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 72c | 91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 47c | 88.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed No | 48c | 81.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…728abacked Yes | 67c | 73.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684a…1b69backed No | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…844dbacked Yes | 48c | 64.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 40c | 63.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…ebd1backed No | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…41d0backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 32c | 48.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…3bfebacked Yes | 76c | 46.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…70abbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…fcbcbacked Yes | 52c | 40.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…a30bbacked Yes | 57c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 80c | 32.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…7890backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…bcd5backed Yes | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…3821backed Yes | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2093…5eb3backed Yes | 49c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…f4fcbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…58aabacked No | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 60c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…f685backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C?this page
- September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.35-1.40°C?No won
- September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?No won
- September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.