Weather · resolved market
September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ee169bbda6909960fc99494e518bc02d7761025b26cc35766eb4ae2b1ff90d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $482,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,481$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 20,002$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 17,302$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.29 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 12,461$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 2c | 11,819$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…1874backed Yes | 0c | 10,156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 18c | 9,840$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.04 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 18c | 9,034$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.73 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 6,173$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,426$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…a4a5backed Yes | 2c | 5,032$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 7c | 4,617$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 3c | 4,272$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…7c06backed Yes | 1c | 3,707$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,378$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,597$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 0c | 2,496$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,452$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,374$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 15c | 2,355$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,024$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3293…f898backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,405$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 1c | 1,308$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,294$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…de83backed Yes | 3c | 950.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 21c | 920$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 3c | 741.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 6c | 666$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 14c | 501.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 12c | 466.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 423.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…acbdbacked Yes | 9c | 283.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…019cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…097ebacked Yes | 38c | 59.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?this page
- September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C?Yes won
- September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.35-1.40°C?No won
- September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?No won
- September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.