Weather · resolved market
September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb9ab17c8046dae6c4f1d0fbe0b4ba53dc83d13aa7f5d6dbcdbd9dd5270d14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $610,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $544,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $610,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 2c | 344,744$5,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,212.26 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…f429backed Yes | 5c | 48,030$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 11c | 21,391$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.9 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…291abacked Yes | 1c | 20,954$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 6c | 19,003$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.64 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,372$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…1874backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 3,822$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 2c | 3,674$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,668$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 2c | 2,334$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…a4a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,258$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,024$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,971$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,590$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,332$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 7c | 1,315$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 8c | 1,203$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…6857backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c3aabacked No | 3c | 929.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +2,930.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…0c13backed Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 4c | 623.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…acbdbacked Yes | 4c | 561.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 5c | 500.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…f241backed Yes | 8c | 248.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 198.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 10c | 152.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?this page
- September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C?Yes won
- September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.35-1.40°C?No won
- September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.