Weather · resolved market
September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa94961fc62766ef354fabf86cf359848a1f5fb8080d724d2635e13b38d56eb31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 30,659$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.39 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 8c | 21,264$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.04 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 2c | 15,006$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 20c | 13,905$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.3 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 6c | 10,538$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.11 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 77c | 10,464$8,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.01 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,836$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…336dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 67c | 4,819$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.93 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 4,462$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.61 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 70c | 4,286$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…a4a5backed Yes | 37c | 2,729$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…1874backed Yes | 2c | 2,632$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 16c | 2,558$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 27c | 2,509$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 30c | 2,113$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,024$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.15 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…80b7backed Yes | 17c | 1,774$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4f…6310backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 35c | 1,132$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 44c | 800$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 799.53$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.23 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 3c | 729.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 19c | 726.17$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 28c | 708.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 27c | 537.17$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.71 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 469.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 11c | 466.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 46c | 407$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…0fc9backed Yes | 32c | 382.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…a30bbacked Yes | 9c | 368.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 38c | 330$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Yes | 11c | 211.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 11c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 208.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a14…26cfbacked No | 59c | 201.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…eebfbacked Yes | 44c | 199.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…291abacked Yes | 45c | 192.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 162.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…41d0backed Yes | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4c97backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…9956backed Yes | 44c | 109.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 39c | 104.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7303…4f7abacked No | 59c | 103.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 38c | 99.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…3b86backed Yes | 45c | 67.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…19b7backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 23c | 66.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…4c62backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 33c | 57.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 30c | 48.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…4eb0backed Yes | 47c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…24c7backed No | 62c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C?this page
- September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C?Yes won
- September temperature increase by between 1.35-1.40°C?No won
- September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?No won
- September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.