Weather · resolved market
September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e8fc620e52455faed4c33d14f6a8f8d69788362f4480d779115630ddf9f000b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 67,471$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 57,826$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 43,333$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.75 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 41,198$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 24,071$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…1874backed Yes | 0c | 20,373$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 1c | 17,791$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed Yes | 1c | 12,298$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…7c06backed Yes | 0c | 11,936$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 5c | 10,202$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.31 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d64…f082backed Yes | 0c | 9,040$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 0c | 7,323$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 1c | 3,089$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…c24abacked Yes | 13c | 2,992$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 0c | 2,982$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…b6b4backed Yes | 8c | 2,800$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…245ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…24c7backed Yes | 0c | 2,448$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,024$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 1c | 1,958$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…acbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,726$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…ba03backed Yes | 1c | 1,514$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…c960backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…b628backed Yes | 1c | 1,464$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…961cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 1c | 982.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4c97backed Yes | 9c | 918.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?this page
- September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C?Yes won
- September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C?No won
- September temperature increase by between 1.35-1.40°C?No won
- September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.