Movies · resolved market
Will "Conclave" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fcf0614f43dfdcbaf1c46e43971e95dde148dac7161df3bb430ebf4f2bbe705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 14c | 7,134$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.54 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 2,698$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.67 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 18c | 2,009$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 13c | 1,133$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 3c | 858.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 671.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 15c | 329.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 7c | 328.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 316.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 11c | 283$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 13c | 210.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 208.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 15c | 159$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 16c | 128.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 14c | 118.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 15c | 110.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 13c | 84.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 78.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…a522backed Yes | 15c | 72.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Conclave" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will "Wicked" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will another movie win the most Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.