Movies · resolved market
Will "The Brutalist" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab64d4b82273eaa91dffb428a95777cb234098cf9c168685afba995873a88f64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 20c | 4,144$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.35 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,113$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 24c | 4,070$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.58 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 73c | 1,708$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.38 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 26c | 1,480$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.83 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,441$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…1d54backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 999.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 71c | 829.24$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 26c | 811.06$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 27c | 762.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 25c | 527.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 72c | 405.53$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 25c | 394.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 24c | 316.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 304.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 240$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed No | 76c | 237.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 38c | 223.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…f639backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 69c | 178.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 29c | 169.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 154$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 137.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb33…c3d6backed Yes | 25c | 121.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed Yes | 35c | 112.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4a…74bbbacked Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…94bcbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 69c | 99.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked Yes | 25c | 98.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d55…cebdbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…1055backed Yes | 40c | 85.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…051cbacked No | 62c | 85.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 83.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…9d24backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4e…55babacked Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 65c | 72.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…9f09backed No | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…c4abbacked Yes | 23c | 69.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 33c | 65.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…eadfbacked Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…3113backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…cd5cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 48.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a59…a1c6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…6bbdbacked No | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b60…a8f4backed Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…2f61backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1aa…b95bbacked Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 77c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6e…53f9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…0b8bbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…29d7backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…7599backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…2997backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…d0ffbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…eea0backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…2ebfbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…9c4abacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Brutalist" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will "Conclave" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will "Wicked" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will another movie win the most Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.