Us Politics · resolved market
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9233718cc3c38531eb865b4e4ca8580fa509c041ac2ae08d335fd7f792915c98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $685,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $675,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $685,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed No | 5c | 54,237$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 21,000$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.99 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…1858backed No | 5c | 19,127$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…db43backed No | 2c | 19,017$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…8a93backed No | 7c | 16,259$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked No | 6c | 11,000$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd904…4295backed No | 10c | 10,173$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked No | 7c | 10,000$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed No | 10c | 10,000$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3325…6b79backed No | 5c | 9,846$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed No | 4c | 7,647$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 8c | 6,386$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.33 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 16c | 6,257$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 5,300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 0c | 5,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 1c | 4,755$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed No | 0c | 4,470$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…3fbfbacked No | 4c | 4,122$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 6c | 4,048$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 0c | 4,021$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 5c | 3,897$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 6c | 3,851$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,778$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…1737backed No | 0c | 3,723$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 4c | 3,512$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 10c | 3,498$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 7c | 3,437$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 14c | 3,221$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…22edbacked No | 2c | 3,138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…4775backed No | 6c | 3,027$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 2c | 2,802$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 3c | 2,597$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed No | 1c | 2,593$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 6c | 2,579$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…21e6backed No | 4c | 2,519$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 12c | 2,502$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…3d2dbacked No | 4c | 2,430$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ec…a946backed No | 5c | 2,377$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…31f2backed No | 4c | 2,289$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…d943backed No | 6c | 2,117$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked No | 6c | 2,115$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…0029backed No | 3c | 2,102$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cc…6888backed No | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…ec29backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ac…67b8backed No | 6c | 1,833$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 1c | 1,828$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 7c | 1,605$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…5d8ebacked No | 3c | 1,485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 1c | 1,389$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed No | 10c | 1,377$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,342$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0d…1407backed No | 4c | 1,338$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…19c5backed No | 13c | 1,173$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 1,103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 4c | 1,100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 10c | 1,068$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked No | 6c | 1,051$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 5c | 1,039$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 12c | 1,020$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 37c | 1,007$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.74 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 8c | 982.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae44…b7fbbacked No | 6c | 930.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 3c | 920$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed No | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 7c | 900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…eea4backed No | 1c | 890.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked No | 11c | 871.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed No | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…4ff8backed Yes | 78c | 832.23$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…cd72backed Yes | 62c | 803.44$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 750$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 4c | 701.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…56a5backed No | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6c14backed No | 2c | 660.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…9ed8backed No | 3c | 650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed No | 8c | 637.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed No | 11c | 628$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09a…f8cdbacked No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 13c | 600$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…632cbacked No | 3c | 581.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 12c | 555$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 10c | 532.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.