TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$685,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$675,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $685,044 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2b6…80b9backed No5c54,237$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No6c21,000$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.9932626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2436…1858backed No5c19,127$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3082…db43backed No2c19,017$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc1…8a93backed No7c16,259$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked No6c11,000$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd904…4295backed No10c10,173$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked No7c10,000$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed No10c10,000$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3325…6b79backed No5c9,846$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed No4c7,647$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No8c6,386$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.3313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983d…933fbacked No16c6,257$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.841612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-81.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c5,300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed No0c5,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed No1c4,755$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48de…2c40backed No0c4,470$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-79.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x675a…3fbfbacked No4c4,122$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+126.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No6c4,048$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42a…cb8ebacked No0c4,021$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No5c3,897$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3711612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No6c3,851$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.084318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,778$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.291,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed No0c3,723$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No4c3,512$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.45111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No10c3,498$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No7c3,437$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked No14c3,221$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.8340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ea…22edbacked No2c3,138$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe71c…4775backed No6c3,027$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No2c2,802$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.413818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No3c2,597$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed No1c2,593$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No6c2,579$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.381921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…21e6backed No4c2,519$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed No12c2,502$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.281850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a9…3d2dbacked No4c2,430$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ec…a946backed No5c2,377$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b7…31f2backed No4c2,289$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No12c2,222$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.647128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fd…d943backed No6c2,117$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211e…35ddbacked No6c2,115$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2962…0029backed No3c2,102$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cc…6888backed No3c2,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ac…67b8backed No6c1,833$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No1c1,828$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.413514.3%5 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No7c1,605$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9814528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7525…5d8ebacked No3c1,485$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c1,400$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.22787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No1c1,389$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…4074backed No10c1,377$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-72.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c1,342$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.831343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0d…1407backed No4c1,338$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No3c1,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.38210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a7…19c5backed No13c1,173$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c1,103$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No4c1,100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.53813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No10c1,068$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.874266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked No6c1,051$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No5c1,039$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.131631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+102.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No12c1,020$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.43969.2%27 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No37c1,007$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.743961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.514048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No4c1,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.731520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No8c982.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.475736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae44…b7fbbacked No6c930.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No3c920$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.22615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed No11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No7c900$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f9…eea4backed No1c890.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked No11c871.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0c…3d66backed No3c833.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda53…4ff8backed Yes78c832.23$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309e…cd72backed Yes62c803.44$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.915227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No5c750$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No4c701.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.04333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked No7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed No3c700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc59c…6c14backed No2c660.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d1…9ed8backed No3c650$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed No8c637.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511540%6 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+124.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88ec…2065backed No11c628$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09a…f8cdbacked No8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No13c600$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5713138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5211…632cbacked No3c581.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No12c555$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.610338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked No10c532.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.74650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed No7c500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.422846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.