Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaec55d60592ee1ca55d7d6cc0ec80ecd33d41256d7279e23aa6b3a29c45ce87b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 2c | 35,250$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.44 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 0c | 10,440$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.51 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 8,607$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 1c | 8,342$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…83febacked Yes | 0c | 7,713$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 4c | 6,616$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.79 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 1c | 5,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 3c | 4,599$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 5c | 3,891$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.74 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 2c | 3,726$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 3,669$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 3,519$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.56 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,502$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Yes | 3c | 3,381$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b6fabacked Yes | 2c | 3,261$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 4c | 2,064$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,054$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,875$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,867$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 5c | 1,420$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…37b6backed Yes | 6c | 999.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 3c | 833.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…0ae6backed Yes | 3c | 737.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 3c | 699.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 3c | 671.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…fb63backed Yes | 3c | 655.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 2c | 632.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 11c | 627.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 4c | 600.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2026backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 559.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…55f8backed Yes | 4c | 542.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…6f8bbacked Yes | 2c | 504.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes | 4c | 481.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…48f9backed Yes | 4c | 477.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 5c | 432.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 6c | 375.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 4c | 371.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…1854backed Yes | 3c | 313.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 4c | 299.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…ea46backed Yes | 11c | 182.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…474ebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215f…1359backed Yes | 12c | 156.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 98.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…4f5bbacked Yes | 38c | 95.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 58c | 73.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…34a2backed No | 62c | 45.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cda…d093backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?this page
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.