Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4f00033534c72166055b60c1e4127704cc4cf6feabdd36da6af22975ae2ca80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $300,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74c…434cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,524$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 2c | 17,264$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.83 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…6481backed Yes | 1c | 14,833$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…f8a7backed Yes | 2c | 14,260$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…99c0backed Yes | 1c | 8,224$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,940$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,430$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 2c | 4,626$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…5bd9backed Yes | 1c | 4,143$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 1c | 3,757$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 1c | 2,760$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…d477backed Yes | 7c | 2,294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,788$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…3382backed Yes | 2c | 1,296$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 3c | 1,139$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,047$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 2c | 897.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…b34fbacked Yes | 2c | 793.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 654.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…76b9backed Yes | 2c | 652.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 4c | 637.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 14c | 315.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes | 7c | 275$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2171…924bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4912backed No | 74c | 67.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?this page
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21?No won
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.