Weather · resolved market
Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.40°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c9b3923bac52ec0fb09a8257ba86552890660ccaa9082a7462b882f82762d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 44,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 12,370$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,001$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.29 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 36c | 1,231$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.02 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 23c | 1,110$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,005$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…80b7backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 27c | 965$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.55 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 25c | 692.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 3c | 477.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 74c | 468.24$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 463.96$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.23 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 27c | 393.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed Yes | 15c | 390.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f1…2185backed Yes | 12c | 293.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 37c | 279.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 276.43$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 41c | 262$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 4c | 250.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 26c | 189.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 23c | 175.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 20c | 155.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…625bbacked Yes | 8c | 127.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 40c | 111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…8280backed Yes | 15c | 99.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 31c | 98.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 80c | 80.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…291abacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 23c | 64.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 39c | 56.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.40°C?this page
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.17-1.22°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.29-1.34°C?Yes won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.