Weather · resolved market
Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.29-1.34°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x690d3465e98bad7f46551129064c47c8306d9794052155a23e467b28a928ba15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 2c | 11,600$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 34c | 2,762$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 60c | 1,401$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.81 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,369$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.27 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…80b7backed Yes | 52c | 1,233$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 60c | 1,160$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.32 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…2c80backed Yes | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 1,103$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed No | 47c | 949.85$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 9c | 700$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 56c | 673.15$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 47c | 591.96$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 310.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed No | 40c | 287.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 63c | 220$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 58c | 214$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…86aebacked Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 50c | 185.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…eaa1backed Yes | 62c | 161.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 142.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 20c | 135.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…0f89backed Yes | 44c | 114.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…7044backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…291abacked Yes | 44c | 72.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c6c1backed Yes | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…e2f0backed No | 50c | 34.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…6b47backed No | 55c | 18.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.29-1.34°C?this page
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.17-1.22°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.40°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C?No won
- Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.