World Politics · resolved market
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15176850f899c1587a2cc9d21f11a055834fe9f6d3199e3d482ad5c69f0441ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 6c | 2,116$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 21c | 1,840$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 6c | 1,707$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 1c | 761.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 14c | 710.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…4e18backed Yes | 28c | 580.68$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…ac9bbacked Yes | 5c | 524.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…0303backed Yes | 15c | 405.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 9c | 351.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 10c | 342.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 8c | 223.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Yes | 15c | 208$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 10c | 201.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…5fcebacked Yes | 43c | 156.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 7c | 149.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 15c | 138.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b86…73ddbacked No | 80c | 125.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…4551backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 48c | 103.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…6602backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc03…5a65backed Yes | 49c | 77.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…6be8backed Yes | 42c | 70.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 43c | 56.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…88bfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 39c | 30.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NDP win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?this page
- Will SK win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?Yes won
- Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.