Olympics · resolved market
Will Mykolas Alekna (LTU) win Gold in Discus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf9f19cecf7d7e9e2f9707ff233aa4aa124434a346fdb9d26f91542c013df279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 1c | 5,060$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 67c | 2,337$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 32c | 1,919$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.04 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 35c | 710$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…160abacked No | 44c | 459$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…3f21backed No | 44c | 275.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 25c | 206.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.75 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 67c | 175$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed No | 11c | 158.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 15cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 31c | 127.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 67c | 111.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…5b35backed Yes | 75c | 98.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Yes | 51c | 43.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.