Olympics · resolved market
Will Gretchen Walsh (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f9bbac0c03b494f96ccf3d59d3ee0eee243a831faf41b1288b622323e64789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc714…3a42backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…e6a5backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked No | 33c | 699.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 75c | 486$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.68 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 28c | 387.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 9c | 358$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 66c | 195.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…a694backed No | 12c | 112.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 14c | 74.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gretchen Walsh (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly?this page
- Will Torri Huske (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.