Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump comment again on drones in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92def30cc3d4e4cd52ff8aafa8ab032e27f27bab4457b495a61fa5411e9e6068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa8…d94fbacked No | 0c | 11,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 19c | 3,156$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.81 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 78c | 2,225$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…5523backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…1de1backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 19c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 79c | 302.43$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 14c | 230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 75c | 145.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 18c | 119.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 24c | 99.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed No | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.