Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x666f8b2a7fa82abc027d42fefa99145a7e3787b76b09529dca5b73873f9ed141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RB Leipzigof RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked RB Leipzig | 34c | 29,836$10,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,605.28 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 64c | 5,427$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 69c | 5,071$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 4,027$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.59 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 65c | 2,774$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked RB Leipzig | 32c | 2,578$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 1,291$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.31 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 860.02$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.03 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed RB Leipzig | 35c | 731.4$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…78aebacked RB Leipzig | 32c | 244.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 243$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 68c | 221.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed RB Leipzig | 37c | 199.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.97 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 30c | 196.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed RB Leipzig | 33c | 192$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 179.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 69c | 145.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 69c | 129.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 123.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed RB Leipzig | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 112.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed RB Leipzig | 74c | 101$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 66c | 87.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 68c | 69.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca83…4d2bbacked RB Leipzig | 32c | 67.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…276abacked RB Leipzig | 34c | 54.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 69c | 53.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…dd1dbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 68c | 53.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 49.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 66c | 48.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 46.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 42.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 38.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed RB Leipzig | 34c | 31.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 68c | 20.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…6a22backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 70c | 14.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.