Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59d4684307505e578f9f0ffcf680dd62603192304a1f4a6e991a5802200ccde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 55c | 13,037$7,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,925.14 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Under | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 59c | 9,741$5,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,761.63 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 40c | 7,338$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,474$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 41c | 722.95$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.54 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…7556backed Over | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 49c | 117.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 48c | 90.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 52c | 79.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Over | 41c | 72.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 57.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…a0a5backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 46c | 50.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 51cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…d623backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 56c | 44.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…624fbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 58c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.