Music · resolved market
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ff3d1cf701c1f0eb85e423c969f32e5a05d59f4f9f3f421d9e52e5539f15b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d2…7165backed Yes | 7c | 1,577$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,195$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…c663backed Yes | 19c | 702.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 61c | 635.88$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 483.65$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…2467backed Yes | 23c | 463.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 36c | 350.9$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb7…15a5backed Yes | 17c | 326.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…6046backed Yes | 16c | 308.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 69c | 302.26$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 70c | 300.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.69 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c4…2fbebacked Yes | 54c | 231.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 68c | 224.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 50c | 211.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 180.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 17c | 178$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…e2a6backed Yes | 53c | 161$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…0a3fbacked Yes | 69c | 146.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 37c | 126.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 48c | 96.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 29c | 58.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…9ccfbacked Yes | 39c | 44.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 37.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…6dd0backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…755cbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…ff42backed Yes | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…9a27backed Yes | 57c | 26.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…a23bbacked Yes | 52c | 22.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…df85backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.