Music · resolved market
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102fd1056e1bce25ead83fd9c964835ab41a8f943a35ef726958e01349e81481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 49c | 3,291$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 70c | 1,795$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.48 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 78c | 680.13$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 30c | 674.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 74c | 614.58$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 52c | 494.64$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed No | 51c | 450$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 29c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 64c | 260.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…7165backed No | 51c | 238.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 25c | 181.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 40c | 179.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes | 33c | 173.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 95.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…00d9backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…4f39backed Yes | 24c | 84.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +322.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 24c | 83.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…2467backed No | 57c | 70.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed No | 35c | 59.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 53.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…8779backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +308.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f7…f224backed No | 73c | 32.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…b7d0backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…789cbacked Yes | 80c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…2e00backed Yes | 75c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.