Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple reach $280 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c58778239cb8cc356351eaff653184dddc3d20b3466c2cd8b98d3a001f947a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,525$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,866$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes | 77c | 452$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 31c | 419.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.12 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 7c | 405.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 51c | 281.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed No | 71c | 260.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 22c | 228.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 173.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 173$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 149.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 79.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…573ebacked No | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +151%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…03f7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple reach $280 in January?this page
- Will Apple dip to $216 in January?No won
- Will Apple dip to $232 in January?No won
- Will Apple dip to $244 in January?Yes won
- Will Apple dip to $256 in January?Yes won
- Will Apple dip to $264 in January?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $288 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $296 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $308 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $360 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.