Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple dip to $244 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5505b609625c32ad5e4f64989e2c7983ca629a5f4ccd7206ebe294927b81cd29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,310$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 27c | 913.68$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.1 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 544.24$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.95 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 33c | 413$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.08 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 62c | 397.66$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 76c | 292.75$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.36 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 69c | 250$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 18c | 228.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 41c | 202$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 167.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 59c | 137$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 58c | 137$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 14c | 124.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 33c | 93.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 78.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 63.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 41c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…941ebacked No | 77c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple dip to $244 in January?this page
- Will Apple dip to $216 in January?No won
- Will Apple dip to $232 in January?No won
- Will Apple dip to $256 in January?Yes won
- Will Apple dip to $264 in January?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $280 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $288 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $296 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $308 in January?No won
- Will Apple reach $360 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.