Weather · resolved market
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c5f6f302830b7a94d71ff16f52abaea01e437fd45fbb8f5ca2a818b676445e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,553$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,266$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be5…b95fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,816$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…937fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,708$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…7959backed Yes | 1c | 1,654$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 1,558$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,530$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,511$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,490$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…8fafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,085$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…ab58backed Yes | 19c | 870$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 783.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…916bbacked Yes | 6c | 757.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 15c | 688.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 6c | 683.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…f32bbacked Yes | 6c | 655.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 639.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 10c | 637.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 589.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 547.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 510.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 5c | 509$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 5c | 489$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…2302backed Yes | 14c | 392.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 12c | 382.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 378.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…9287backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9355backed Yes | 10c | 347.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…e6e4backed Yes | 3c | 333$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 327.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 299.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 8c | 287$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 286$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 12c | 281.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 245.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 211.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 7c | 209.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 7c | 205.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 12c | 181.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…fa4dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…2e43backed Yes | 11c | 135.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31d…789bbacked Yes | 13c | 121.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…2787backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb919…ea68backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes | 23c | 98.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe237…dfe1backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 16c | 80.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…9159backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 63.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.