Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d248c665c7239abc05248f0e53c7c7048b3f99f758ddf5c217170c35d6e9952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 78c | 4,740$3,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 4c | 4,445$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked No | 19c | 3,200$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 78c | 2,556$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.5 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 10c | 2,500$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.88 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed No | 14c | 2,101$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 1c | 1,235$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…ede2backed No | 22c | 1,006$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 10c | 978.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes | 79c | 628.26$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 12c | 573.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed No | 15c | 540.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…0a04backed No | 12c | 503.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 455$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 376.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 371.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed No | 18c | 331.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 328.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 35c | 320$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 298.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…2570backed No | 8c | 276.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 245.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…22c9backed Yes | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 196.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 17c | 153.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 46c | 114.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…5754backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 23c | 91.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…00e0backed No | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 14c | 83.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…d5c2backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…51c4backed No | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…ca15backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…49bcbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9.5m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 9.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.