Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe020c618b3fbc04634b35dcb68a5c3eec7b247621bb0e281ac7cf1f0fab2008f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,450$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,492$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.04 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 1,956$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,948$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 1,433$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 1,400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,306$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 9c | 1,050$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…3cbfbacked Yes | 10c | 600$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 296.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 293.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…1210backed Yes | 18c | 169.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 33c | 152.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…fcf5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 94.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…1bdbbacked Yes | 22c | 67.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9.5m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 9.5m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.