Movies · resolved market
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f9b273fe2c1b090efb9f4031b75eb2a3650804d37681bf3d78b6dfad6a1d264
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 0c | 10,290$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 17c | 2,694$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.07 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 20c | 2,140$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 1,634$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.98 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,510$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 1c | 1,494$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,314$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 11c | 1,205$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 22c | 998.85$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.37 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 899.02$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 4c | 860.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked Yes | 18c | 813.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…5274backed Yes | 5c | 655.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 517.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 484.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed Yes | 24c | 425.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 21c | 364.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 293$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 19c | 237.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 24c | 232.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…adf7backed Yes | 13c | 222.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c91fbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 173.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 170.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 14c | 134.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 119.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 118.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 115.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 11c | 109.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 104.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 17c | 100.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…98aebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 18c | 91.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 86.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 80.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…4046backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…b451backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…711abacked Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 79c | 23.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 70c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?this page
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.