Movies · resolved market
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcc86b171f5bf88c6589bc2bfa60aa3c546efc6fad66d00932ec1d25816033df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 7c | 11,293$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.58 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 1c | 8,474$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 6c | 2,885$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…c9e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,433$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 12c | 2,371$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,357$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 2,198$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.22 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…e0f6backed Yes | 3c | 2,159$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 0c | 2,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,893$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,677$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,653$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,645$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,573$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 15c | 1,310$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,199$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 1,106$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 5c | 1,012$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked Yes | 4c | 987.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 7c | 836.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked Yes | 3c | 799.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 760.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 526.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957b…961abacked Yes | 4c | 426.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…0592backed Yes | 4c | 409.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 6c | 381.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 7c | 367.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…39c3backed Yes | 5c | 326.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 5c | 243.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 7c | 181.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 6c | 177.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 23c | 168$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…49bfbacked Yes | 37c | 53.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?this page
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.